"The Odds Are Increasing That Microsoft's Business Will Collapse"
That's a pretty good title if you (like Henry Blodget from Silicon Alley Insider, the writer of the article) are trying to grab eyeballs. It also provides a useful introduction to what I call the "Innovator's Paradox."
Blodget's article was provocative. He argued that Microsoft is in a no-win situation. It isn't sitting on any idea that is on the cusp of turning into a multi-billion dollar business. The personal computer is losing its dominance to mobile devices and tablets. The company's core profit drivers (Windows and Office) are under disruptive assault from Google's freely available applications and operating system. At best, Microsoft will respond with its own free products and erode its profit margin.
The most telling thing in Blodget's post was a chart that showed the sources of Microsoft's profits over the past few years. Microsoft's core business has continued — despite continued proclamations of the company's coming demise — to throw off cash and to grow. But new growth businesses that were specks in 2006 (entertainment and devices and online services) remain tiny, and Microsoft hasn't created any material new businesses over the past few years.
That's a pretty good title if you (like Henry Blodget from Silicon Alley Insider, the writer of the article) are trying to grab eyeballs. It also provides a useful introduction to what I call the "Innovator's Paradox."
Blodget's article was provocative. He argued that Microsoft is in a no-win situation. It isn't sitting on any idea that is on the cusp of turning into a multi-billion dollar business. The personal computer is losing its dominance to mobile devices and tablets. The company's core profit drivers (Windows and Office) are under disruptive assault from Google's freely available applications and operating system. At best, Microsoft will respond with its own free products and erode its profit margin.
The most telling thing in Blodget's post was a chart that showed the sources of Microsoft's profits over the past few years. Microsoft's core business has continued — despite continued proclamations of the company's coming demise — to throw off cash and to grow. But new growth businesses that were specks in 2006 (entertainment and devices and online services) remain tiny, and Microsoft hasn't created any material new businesses over the past few years.